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That 2.5% house edge on Catan dice rolls finally clicked for me
I was reading the rulebook again last night and realized the robber token actually shifts the odds by a measurable amount. Had a friend who always complained about getting stuck on 6 and 8 spots, now I get why. Anyone else ever run the numbers on their favorite game's randomness?
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dianaanderson17d ago
Played a lot of Risk with my college buddies. Ran the numbers once on the battle odds. Rolling 3 dice vs 2 defenders sounds good but the tiebreaker rule kills you. Defender wins ties. That 1.5% edge adds up over a whole game. Lost like 3 games in a row before I realized I was attacking too much with big stacks. Now I only attack when I have 4+ more troops than the defender. Small change, big difference.
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the_joseph17d ago
Played a game last month where I lost 12 troops to 2 defenders. Brutal.
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wendy62817d ago
Total honesty here, my Risk strategy used to be "throw everything at them and hope for the best." My college roommate called it the Sherman Tactic. Just burn through your whole army in one go. It worked until it didn't. @dianaanderson you're spot on about that tiebreaker rule. I read somewhere that the defender's edge is actually bigger than people think because of how it compounds over multiple battles. I started doing the same thing with the 4+ troop buffer and it saved my games. Still lost plenty, but at least I had more than 3 turns to think about why.
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